Anyone else into Investing or Trading?
Hey, Indie Hackers!
I've been finding this to be one of the best online communities out there. Everyone is so helpful and respectful to each other.
I'm wondering if there are any others out there that are also into investing or trading? Let's talk!
I love swing trading stocks and primarily on technical analysis with a dash of fundamentals in there.
What are you into? What platform do you use? :)
Hey Jake,
I am. I'm more of a long-term trader(2-3 years).
Anything interesting on your radar?
Hi Caleb,
I tend to do more short-term stuff, a few days to a few weeks. Nothing too interesting at the moment. :)
Investing. I buy mutual funds, and then a few stocks via Robinhood in companies I use personally.
Not me. My returns are better from building personally all my investments that aren't in companies I own are in managed funds.
So you invest in mutual funds? For me, I've found my returns are better when I invest on my own but mutual funds are good if you'd rather be hands off and not stare at charts all day.
How long have you been trading for?
Trading view and tc2000 are top for me
TA has close to zero merit. I say close to and not zero because studies have been done that show before particular TA techniques are published and become widely used they actually do have predictive power historically. However once every one is using them that actually changes how stocks wind up behaving and the predictive power goes away. The moral of the story is original thinking and seeing catalysts that others don't see is where the big, above market average returns are.
I love markets and think trading is a very interesting game. As a retail trader the system isn't designed so that you win on those brokerage platforms. Anton Kreil's talk lays that out pretty clearly. I've come to see that the guys at the top of the game really are original thinkers and that's where the money is, so when Anton started talking about that in his videos I really figured hey that's a pretty strong endorsement of that viewpoint .
As such I'm making strategic moves now with the friends that I surround myself with and the books we all read, that in 10 to 15 years will play out in such a way we can put together a real team of original thinkers and hopefully pull off even a fraction of what the greats have.
All anyone who ever really won in the markets did was pay an enormous amount of attention to the right things.
I think most people don't understand TA. I use TA, but I don't think it has any predictive power. It's just a tool. There's an art to it.
Most people who try TA read a book, try it, it doesn't work, and they give up.
Most people are correct.
What do you use it for it you don't think it has any predictive power?
I use it to get on the right side of the order flow. Also in conjunction with what I call, "people analysis".
For example:
There are a million variables that affect asset prices. I don't try to understand them. For me, it's too hard.
But other investors do. Other investors come up with theories on how the world works and which companies will succeed and which will fail.
They enter buy and sell orders based on what "they believe" will happen.
In turn, those buy and sell orders affect asset prices and occasionally create favorable risk/reward situations.
Two quick examples:
When Tesla went public in 2010 the stock traded in a ~$20-40 dollar range for three years. One day, the buyers took control above $40 and over the preceding 18 months or so, it rallied 600 +%.
Around the time price broke out to the upside, app. 45% of the float was sold short.
In addition,
analysts and hedge funds alike were trying to explain what was happening. Based on their view the "fundamentals" didn't justify this rally.
Hence, more were selling into it, adding further fuel to the fire.
Does it matter if their analysis will eventually be right? No, because at that time, they were on the wrong side of the order flow. They were short and the higher the price went, the more pressure there was to cover their position.
Another example:
Last year, the WSJ ran an article about a guy who worked in Target, or somewhere like that, who made a fortune buying ETFs like the VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN(VIX).
Two things interested me about this story(people watching).
Fast forward to February of this year. The two main products investors were buying for the "short vol" trade lost around 95% of their value.
Again, it's watching what other people are doing.
Hope this helps someone,
Happy trading,
Caleb
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Oh cool! I've heard of them before, what exactly is it for?
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