22 users — I'm testing whether supply or retention is the bigger problem
Opinix is now at 22 users.
We've already learned that registration alone isn't enough. We had participants complete opportunities and then ask for more surveys and tasks.
So I'm testing something much more specific with the next five participants:
Give each participant at least two relevant earning opportunities.
Then watch what happens.
If they complete the first and want another but we can't provide one, that's a supply problem.
If they have two good opportunities but don't continue, then the issue is somewhere else in the activation/retention loop.
I'm trying to measure actual user behavior rather than just celebrate signup numbers.
Has anyone else used a similar “give users enough supply first, then measure retention” experiment on an early marketplace?
Great breakdown. What feedback have you had from early users?
Interesting approach. What was the hardest part to get right?
Great breakdown. What feedback have you had from early users?
Interesting approach. What was the hardest part to get right?
Appreciate the honesty here, most people only share the wins.
Curious how long it took before you saw the first real results?
Hey Daniel ! This is a good way to separate supply problems from retention problems. I had probably also look at where users drop off between the first and second opportunity, since that could reveal whether the issue is opportunity quality, motivation, or simply not having enough supply.
Exactly. That’s the next thing I’m going to watch.
I want to see what happens between the first and second opportunity rather than just looking at overall retention.
If users complete the first but don't continue despite having another relevant opportunity, then I'll know to investigate quality, motivation or the UX. If they actively want another opportunity and we don't have one for them, that's a much clearer supply signal.
That should give us a much better answer than simply looking at the signup number.