Convexly

Convexly is an independent skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets. Paste any wallet, get its realized edge with a 95% confidence interval in 30 seconds, free. Frozen methods, public data, negative results kept up.

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Convexly
Convexly is an independent skill-vs-luck audit for prediction-market traders. Paste any Polymarket wallet and get its realized edge with a 95% confidence interval, calibration by market category, and an Edge Score against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort, in about 30 seconds with no signup. The deeper product is the legitimacy layer: frozen methods, public datasets, pre-registered forward tests, and negative results that stay published.
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I ran the top 50 Polymarket "winners" through a false-discovery-rate bar. Most did not clear it.

I ran the top 50 Polymarket "winners" through a false-discovery-rate bar. Most did not clear it.

I ran the top 50 Polymarket "winners" through a false-discovery-rate bar. Most did not clear it.

From scoring forecasters to scoring whales: a 10-day pivot

The pivot that found our wedge: from a generic decision tool to a skill-vs-luck audit for Polymarket wallets

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