Building a fully automated crypto trading bot in public. Hit a wall when Fear & Greed dropped below 15 — the bot was sitting out entirely for 11 days straight.
Spent two weeks trying to solve it. Tested 13 strategies specifically for extreme fear conditions.
11 failed completely. Mean reversion doesn't work in trending markets regardless of the entry signal.
Two that passed:
Range Break Failure — fades fake breakouts back to range mean. 56% WR, 238 trades, works in fear AND bull markets. This one surprised us.
FVG fade — fair value gap fills. 46% WR. Fear periods only.
Wiring both into the live shadow bot today alongside bear trend shorts (45% WR).
Full backtest screenshot in the Reddit post if anyone wants the parameter details.
Happy to answer questions — this is the most honest account I can give of what actually works vs what looks good on paper.