What is the success rate of starting a business in a recession?

I have registered indiehackes account for five months. I have carefully read almost every blog post, and also read the email content sent to me by indiehackers every day. These things are almost wandering in my mind now. This is a very good community, where I can see success and feel some failures. Many founders have clearly recorded their journey, and I see hope from every wonderful turn.

I have been hesitating whether to publish my project here.

Let's put it this way, I'm 40 years old. it's definitely a bit older for this community, and a lot of good indieers are young people with a lot of energy, they're enthusiastic, they're aggressive, and more importantly, they have enough Time for trial and error. But I'm not alone, I have a small team of mostly great programmers, and we don't have a dedicated operations staff yet. Compared to others, my only advantage may be that our very small team used to develop some software, but as many prophets told us, those software were things we built behind closed doors, not even products, Because I don't yet have a saas customer subscription that pays for these gadgets.

We haven't raised any money, so it looks like we started from scratch

We have built products, but they are unfamiliar to new markets and 100% brand new. So, if our journey should also be a typical hacker journey, I need to attract 10 users first, 1000 users at the beginning, and then I need to find people who are willing to pay for it, Next, how to get from $100 Subscribe to 1m. The whole process is the same except that it will not be distracted by software development. Whether it succeeds or fails, I will sort out a complete set of operation processes, including work plans, implementation paths, required tools and scripts (yes, we may create many automated tools to speed up the implementation). This will be a complete guide to success (or failure). I hope our journey can inspire friends in the community.

It should be noted that although I am older, I am still full of enthusiasm for developing a software that makes them feel useful for many people who need it. At present, based on the existing technology accumulation, I have several choices, and I intend to list them all to share with you.

As someone said, if I do it now, I may fail or regret this impulsive decision; But if I don't do it, I may be doomed to regret my old age. So, what else to worry about? Let's start.

I intend to transform some prototype products we already have in the Chinese market in order to better adapt to the international market. At the same time, I am ready to republish them here.

My overall plan is:

1. Select direction

2. Observe market reaction

3. Get user feedback

4. Continuous iteration

5. Until a user is willing to pay

Rush to my first 1m

Therefore, we need to choose the direction first. Fortunately, I have good accumulation and can start from many aspects, but maybe this is unfortunate.
Here is my three choices:

1. taowen（https://www.datafocus.io/platform/taowen.html ）, a platform to produce, share and disseminate digital opinions;
2. DataFocus Cloud（https://www.datafocus.io/platform/cloud/introduction.html）, a search-based data analysis platform with full-stack functionality;
3. Focus Search（https://www.datafocus.io/platform/search/introduction.html）, an NLQ parsing API that truly achieves data equality.

Which project should I choose to start from? It's definitely not a good idea to do everything at once. Any advice is appreciate, thank you!