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$4.5K Monthly Expenses, No Revenue & Bright Future

Projecting growth and timelines is part science and part visionary intuition.  Currently I have expenses of $4,500 monthly and no income but I project I will be earning $10K monthly within 16 months and on the 17th month I will earn another $100K.

I set goals to give me concrete quantifiable objectives.  That way at any given time I know if I should be celebrating because I am ahead on my goals or re-evaluating strategies to catch up.

I post my projections here both to hold myself accountable and to be open for advice and recommendations from the Indie Hackers.  I recognize there are a lot of brilliant people here with knowledge of current trends and tools.  Only a fool believes they know everything and fails to heed advice.  Especially in the tech field one must be quick to learn and adapt in order to succeed.

Goal Overview

Finish making the Wizards Toolkit a commercial low-code product.
Grow my YouTube channel following.
Grow my reputation as a person that provides value to the programming community on IndieHackers, Facebook, dev.to and Twitter networks so later can leverage for marketing Wizards Toolkit.
Generate sufficient income monthly via Wizards Toolkit and related software contracting from my Programming Labs company to cover monthly expenses.
Grow Wizards Toolkit subscriptions so it becomes primary source of revenue.

History So Far

  • On November 5th I quit my six-figure Chief Technology Officer job.  I took a couple months off to review options and make this plan.
  • Started Feb 27th with nothing except a code library I have been working on since 2009.  No YouTube channel, no Facebook account, nothing.
  • So far my setbacks include having 2 video editors quit putting me behind 3 weeks.
  • Hired UI person and started training.
  • Hired third video editor who will start next week.
  • So far I'm exceeding previous predictions for YT Subscribers and viewed hours.

Current Status: Bleak or Exciting Ground Floor?

  • No revenue
  • Limited savings
  • 4 part time employees in 3 countries
  • $4500 in fixed monthly expenses of which about $1950 is directly related to business.
  • Need to start generating $ within 9 months before savings run out
  • YouTube Statistics
    • 34 subscribers
    • 8 Videos and 10 shorts
    • 36 viewed hours from 1780 views
  • Twitter followers: 8
  • IndieHackers followers: 1
  • Facebook friends: 31

Some would say the current status and therefore outlook was bleak indeed.  Since I started less than 2.5 months ago, I consider this to be right-on-track.  I've no worries and feel quite confident that I'll succeed with my goals and that I can do it working about 40 hours per week.

Oh, I know there will be obstacles and haters that will gladly send me details on how and why I will fail.  That's part of the process - you have to learn how to turn obstacles into stepping stones.  How to separate haters from valid criticism then ignore the haters and definitely don't waste time on them; learn from the criticism and adjust accordingly.  For example Mick of @Primer gave me criticism and advice on my Job Salary Shorts which was insightful and spot-on.  I took it to heart, made major modifications and the popularity of the videos have increased from average of 35 views to 390+ views within the first week of publishing and video I published yesterday had over 311 views in 25 hours.  Thanks @Primer!

Revenue Streams

When starting out I like to have multiple revenue streams so if one is slower than expected, hopefully one of the others will be doing better than expected.

  1. The Wizards Toolkit will be much slower to get launched and have it generate worthwhile revenue.  That's OK since it also has the best staying power and will be a recurring revenue source which each sale will likely bring revenue in for years.  This is what my long-term goal is... to make my primary revenue be supporting and enhancing the Wizards Toolkit.
  2. Programming Labs is my old software development company which I ran for 15 years then closed for 6 years while I was CTO.  I'm relaunching but not looking for clients at this time because I don't want them to detract from my time and focus on Wizards Toolkit.  I expect based on exposure of my YouTube channel and upcoming videos on the Wizards Toolkit that one to three clients will request software development services.  I'll accept a few jobs in 2021 and the first half of 2022 just to help with cash flow and because it will be good publicity for Wizards Toolkit to have more portfolio projects of enterprise client websites/mobile apps.
  3. YouTube monetization - this is actually the least important to me and I expect will create very little in revenue.  I'll still do it just because it's easy and nice to have multiple revenue streams, but it is by no means the goal.  Adsense, affiliate marketing, POD merchandise and maybe even brand deals.  In a couple years this will probably be generating decent monthly revenue.
  4. Document and journaling of every step on this journey - then upon reaching $100K ARR create a how-to course and sell it for $990.  I project I can sell at least 101 of those which would generate another $99,990.  Keep updating it and annually sell the updated version which should generate at least $100K annually.

Goals and Timelines

Timeline Goals

Percentage of WTK sales

Relying 100% on YouTube or any other medium would be foolish.  I will be pursuing the Wizards Toolkit sales through all the following channels:

  • YouTube followers, Twitter followers, Facebook groups, etc.
  • Main collaborators whom I am working with - I promote their services and they promote mine.
  • I'll create an affiliate plan.
  • I'll personally approach SQL schools and PHP clubs/schools.  Give them demos, free training and incentives to adopt the Wizards Toolkit.
  • Attend tech start-up events and compete using Wizards Toolkit; possibly be a sponsor.
  • Lastly, advertising on YouTube. Frankly I expect this will be very minor but will test for ROI.

Forecast Graph

Statistics and Why We Try

With any action there are several possible outcomes.  You play the odds and learn over time how to improve your results.  This goes for sales funnels, landing pages and even writing this article.  I forecast I will receive three recommendations from the Indie Hacker community.  Statistically 2 of them I will use some version of what they recommend.  One of the recommendations will be three times more effective than the other but it may be a surprise as to which of the two was the most effective.  We try, find what works, drop the failures, hone the successes, and move-on.  Of course it would be great if there is more than 3 recommendations... the more the merrier! Side thought - for whoever submits the most effective advice I'll give the $990 October 2022 course for free. Not because I want to incentivize indie hackers helping each other, but just because I think it's the right thing to do.

Summary

To all the indie hackers out there... remember success is not super difficult.  Provide value and quality in all you do.  Find a need and fill it.  Don't expect a toil-free business - you will have to work hard and smart and put in the long hours.  You can do it!

I need 550 subscribers to Wizards Toolkit to be earning $100K annually.  It doesn't matter if some people don't like it or prefer alternative low-code or no-code solutions.  I don't need 100% of the world to love the product.  Haters are going to hate and let them.  Focus on those that see the value.  Ask for their feedback and find ways to provide even more value.  Nurture the relationships that work.  Everything can and should be a win-win relationship.  For me, I don't need to sell millions, just 550 and I'm golden.

My plans and implementation will change over the months.  I'm flexible and quick to take advantage of new opportunities.  How is not certain but I will make my timeline goals.  I'll update indiehackers.com as the project unfolds.

Today I have no income and $4,500 in monthly expenses. In 17 months I will have earned $200K using the above plans. Thereafter I'll have a recurring $200K+ annual income from two main revenue sources. That's my goal, projection and commitment. Watch me.

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