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A New Journey

Its worth noting that this is posted both here and on my blog: https://solohacker.net/
(This explains my references to my blog throughout)

Introduction

Everyone has goals and dreams, but who’s goals are clear and well defined, and of those people, how many actually act on them? And of those, how many commit to them fully? The numbers are slim. As of current I stand in an awkward category, I have fairly well defined goals, however I act on them inconsistently; I’m not fully committed.

Looking back, I noticed that the times I’m most committed, and where I take action immediately, is where I’m helping other people. Why is this? Maybe when helping others we feel a sense of responsibility, and in agreeing to help someone, we are agreeing to commit to a cause. Should we not follow through with the contract, our credibility and trustability decreases. Having credibility and trustability are hugely valuable resources, hence it makes sense that we may find it easier to do something for somebody else rather than ourselves. Selflessness is selfish.

This blog was started with the very intention of leveraging this phenomenon. This blog serves as a commitment to the readers, a contract that states I will act on my goals, and try to keep to deadlines. All my working progress and deadlines will be posted publicly for readers to see.

A new blog post detailing my progress will be posted every Sunday (with exception to this coming Sunday, since it is close by)

The Project

A bit of context, as of current, I have recently graduated from university (doing Computer Science), got a full-time remote job as a Software Engineer. For my dissertation in final year, I created an Artificial Neural Network (a simplified computerised model of the neurons in a brain to use for AI) to forecast bitcoin prices 10 minutes into the future. This was tested on past data, and showed some promise. I managed to squeeze 59.2% accuracy out of the model on past data, still with some potential for future improvements. In other words, the model forecasted the correct direction 59.2% of the time. In the trading world a 60% win rate is a huge feat, especially when trading with high frequency.

My current project is the improvement and finalisation of this model. While the model is in a fairly finished state, it has only been tested on past data, and put through trades in a simulated environment. Now I must link this to a broker, and begin trading.

I have made some progress already for linking the model to the broker, however, it can now be hard to find the time and motivation to work on the project consistently now that work is the picture (hence the blog).

The boring bit:

The model is created in a programming language called Python, whereas the broker I have chosen provides a trading platform called MT4 (MetaTrader 4), which forces you to program in an outdated C style language called MQL4. MQL4 is pain, and MQL4 code cannot be used in other platforms should I choose to switch broker / platform, therefore the solution is to setup and MQL4 program which communicates with the Python program (using a socket). The MQL4 client feeds the data to the Python client, the Python client feeds it through the model, makes a decision, and feeds that decision back to the MQL4 client, which may take action or place a trade.

I am currently part way through the creation of the Python and the MQL4 client, and by next week (and thus the next blog post), these should both be in a finished state. Having completed these, I will be able to test the existing model in the trading platform (MT4).

Progress Tracking

So how can you follow along with my progress in real-time (besides following the blog posts)?

For project management, I am using a Kanban board, a project management tool which includes cards which detail future and current to-dos.

To help visualise where I am in terms of my project, and where I will be in the future, I am using a gantt chart as a roadmap. Each item in the gantt chart pertains to a specific card in the Kanban board.

Of course, both the Kanban board and roadmap are public, and are updated in real-time, meaning you won’t have to wait for the next blog post to monitor the current state of the project.

Kanban board: https://trello.com/b/3rUPJAOP/ai-trading-kanban

Roadmap: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zxrgQBvdFVAmPEnBdC741d5sdvhKcpt4zxn5IYn4TFM/edit?usp=sharing

Keep posted, and I’ll share my progress next Sunday (10th) with a new post

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