How to increase your luck as a founder: Just show up

What is luck? What are the different types of luck? How did the world's biggest startups grow by utilizing different types of luck? We've explored all that in part 1.

How can you set yourself up for failure by having the wrong mindset when it comes to luck? We've explored that in part 2.

In part 3 of this series, we'll explore action steps you can take to actually increase your luck as a founder.

Just show up

Woody Allen famously said that "80% of success is just showing up. One comment on the internet summed this up well:

"It always amazes me how many people refuse to even put themselves in a position to be lucky. The small amount of success I've had in my life has been 99% related to just showing up."

"Put yourself in a position to be lucky". What a powerful statement.

By showing up, I mean:

• Show up on a potential investor's radar (by emailing them, asking for advice if you're looking for funding).

• Show up on a potential partner's radar (by publishing a useful article and submitting it on HackerNews/Reddit/IndieHackers/etc.)

• Show up on a potential customer's radar (by going to a conference in your niche and striking up conversations.)

Another popular quote that reminds me of this principle is: "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

The key here is to actively create optionality. By optionality, I mean "the potential for options." The ability to be chosen (for something you consider useful).

The first (and often the most successful) step to doing that is to show up on someone else's radar.

It's uncomfortable to stand in the rain

I know that "showing up" is easier said than done.

Kapwing, one of the world's most successful SaaS companies, has a post on this topic. Julia, the cofounder and CEO of Kapwing, wrote the post.

Julia compares getting lucky to getting lightning to strike (which is not that rare, about 100 lightning bolts strike the Earth every second). According to Julia, there are moments where lightning can strike your startup and propel its way to success.

To get lightning to "strike" you/your product, you start by going to the storm. Which requires standing in the rain.

Standing in the rain is uncomfortable. "Standing in the rain" is showing up. It's putting yourself in novel situations where you have the potential to get lucky.

"Standing up in the rain" involves going to meetups, talking to people, submitting things, participating in online forums, etc.

Why this works: Luck surface area

Another analogy to help you get this idea is the concept of a "luck surface area".

"Luck surface area" is the amount of exposure someone has to opportunities and resources that can lead to success.

Your Luck Surface Area, is directly proportional to the degree to which you do something, combined with the total number of people to whom this is effectively communicated.

According to this principle, to get luckier, you need to do more things and tell more people about it.

One thing to consider here is cost; you don't want to be doing something for 2 years and spend 2 days telling people about it. Which leads me to the last section...

Make lightning rods (cheaply and quickly)

To increase your chances of lightning striking you, you need to make lightning rods, according to Julia. And you need to make them cheaply and quickly, and get as many out into the storm as possible.

For Kapwig, "making lightning rods" is the equivalent of publishing blog articles (and putting them on social media) and reaching out to potential customers.

Don't fall in the trap of "optimising" things: According to Julia, there are experts out there who will claim to tell you "where the clouds are moving, or you could build the single best, strongest rod."

If those "experts" were right, Google, Booking, Facebook, and Microsoft wouldn't be doing 10,000+ online experiments annually, each.

Instead, those big companies maximize your chances of lightning striking, make the rods (i.e.) cheaply and quickly, and get as many out into the storm as possible.

In comparison, the average small company runs 2-3 tests a month.

Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying you should start doing 100+ split tests simultaneously. You probably don't even have the traffic necessary for that.

However, this & next month, you could put yourself in 100+ different situations where luck can strike. For Kapwing, luck striked multiple times. This article got them over 5 million views:

They also got on the front page of Wired with a simple cold email:

Kapwig also got on the front page of HackerNews:

The key to this success? Just showing up.