I finally took the time to parse the logs and gather stats:
Users are considered active if the ran the program allowing remote connections to their game server.
So on average 15/30 new users fail to get setup and almost 100% of users that do, use the product the next day. 30% of users that successfully use the product say around.
I only have data for the past 4 weeks but I think I have a good bit to go on. If I figure out why 50% of my users fail to get setup, that's 2x the growth! I found there were a few bugs in the setup guide, with those resolved I'm eager to await the stats to see if that made a noticeable difference.
It looks like my growth rate is about 4 long time users per day. I'm stoked with that. I want to grow it and break event with server hosting costs!