Since the discipline of making predictions with numbers is a useful one…

Since the discipline of making predictions with numbers is a useful one:

• 5% chance crypto qua crypto durably becomes used as a source of value
• 10% chance that something recognizably cryptolike gets used for fiat settlement materially (billions per year)
• 30% chance that crypto has approximately the economic and social impact of Civil War reenactors
• 55% second coming of the dot com bubble ("but no Amazon"); every dollar invested lost; no material value created whatsoever

And for what it is worth I don't mean 5% chance "crypto becomes gold" I mean 5% chance "crypto is used as a ledger for non-currency-denominated savings at something at or above the level of assets of a US community bank"