2021 Publishing Predictions – Pandemic Reshapes Publishing, Accelerates Consolidation

Good read, thanks for sharing.

The trend towards authoritarianism is concerning not just in publishing but also app development (i.e. Apple), social media (Facebook), video (YouTube)...

I think it's more important than ever for indiehackers to own their own platform. The web is still (more or less) open and free. Email lists are yours. Every other customer acquisition or distribution channel that you don't control carries risk – you must have a direct connection to your customer/reader/audience!

If you're sharecropping on a platform you don't own/control, that's fine but be prepared for the platform to change the rules against you or yank the rug out from under your feet entirely.

Fascinating. I've been a huge fan of Mark Coker and the Smashwords platform since I began exploring self-publishing options for a novel over ten years ago. (It's a pity he hasn't redesigned the site since then!)

I agree with the two main themes that emerge from his 13 predictions:

1. more people will read books in 2021, and

2. self-published authors will increasingly surrender control to big tech platforms.

Mark Coker on why more people will read books in 2021

Nesting will favor digital reading - With eight billion people around the world in need of COVID-19 vaccinations and not enough vaccine supply to go around, many consumers of books will spend more time at home than they did pre-pandemic. The indie author community, which earns the bulk of its income via ebooks, will be a beneficiary.

Trump effect will lead to more book reading - Regardless of how you feel about Donald Trump, most people would agree that he held a sizable portion of our daily media consumption attention. … What are we going to do with our extra hours of free time each week? A portion of that time will shift to reading.

Books become more important in 2021 - The pandemic is not over. It's difficult to emotionally process trauma when we're living it. Even after every last soul is vaccinated and this plague is eradicated from the earth, it will take years to heal from this collective trauma. Books have always provided readers great comfort, pleasure, escapism and understanding.

Mark Coker on why self-published authors will increasingly surrender control to big tech platforms

Democratization vs. Authoritarianism… Although indie authors benefited this year from COVID-19 in the form of stronger ebook sales, the pandemic also altered the power structure of the publishing industry in ways that will amplify future inequalities and jeopardize author independence. Physical bookstores were big losers in the pandemic, while enormous power consolidated around a small number of major online platforms such as Facebook, Amazon and Google. These dominant platforms wield their supreme power to stand between you and your audience.

Consolidation in traditional publishing drives more authors to self-publishing - The big four publishers are about to become the big three with Penguin Random House’s pending acquisition of Simon & Schuster. In slow growth or overcrowded markets, consolidation yields greater efficiencies, profits and competitive advantages for the surviving entities. The combination will give Penguin Random House about 30% of the US book market. With fewer publishers bidding for the best books, it means fewer opportunities and lower advances for authors interested in a traditional publishing deal. This will drive more authors to self-publishing.

Consolidation coming to indie publishing as well - The self-publishing market is overcrowded with too many companies fighting for too few dollars. You want to get your book to Apple Books? Apple lists Smashwords and 20 approved aggregators and conversion houses to help you, or you can upload direct. … This is unsustainable. For the same reasons the big New York publishers are consolidating, consolidation is inevitable for self-publishing as well. Does the world really need hundreds of ebook distributors? The answer is no. In fact, the plethora of all of these companies doing the same thing is confusing and counterproductive for most authors.