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All of the "next big thing" trends have fizzled

Am I missing something or have basically all of the “next big thing” trends in VC basically fizzled for like 10 years? VR, Uber for X, Sharing Economy, Blockchain, Drones, Smart Devices/IoT (feels like a Luke warm success)

Tyler might be right.

Each category had a standout winner or two. Then people predicted the dawn of a new age. But the followups were disappointing.

  • In VR, Oculus got acquired… and then basically nothing happened?
  • "Uber for X" is just Uber/Lyft… and maybe a couple delivery companies?
  • The sharing economy is Airbnb… and nobody else?
  • Blockchain made some speculators rich… but there are no applications?
  • IoT… has somehow just made appliances worse?

Not all trends are like this. PCs, the web, e-commerce, and smartphones all took off immediately and never looked back.

What's like that now?

My winners:

  • The creator economy and making content online. Everyone has a YouTube, a Substack, a podcast, a Twitter account, or an OnlyFans (under an anonymous username of course).
  • Indie hacking. Everyone with the skills to build something is trying to build something, whether they can raise money or not.
  • B2B tech businesses. Zoom, Cloudflare, Stripe, Fiverr, Webflow, Airtable, Notion, are all huge. Boring products selling to tech businesses. Don't bet against the internet.

What else?

on December 12, 2020