Building a dashboard to spot short-term mispricings in live prediction markets
I’ve been trading options/futures for years and recently started watching live prediction market pricing (Kalshi/Polymarket) during NFL games. What stood out to me was how emotionally prices reprice after touchdowns or big plays, often ignoring (or at least discounting) similar historical game states.
So I built PriceArb, a SaaS that compares the current game state (score, time left, possession) and team records against similar past NFL games to highlight where prices look stretched. It’s meant for short-term trades (in and out), not buy-and-hold — I’ve had trades work even when the final outcome went the other way.
It’s early, NFL-only, and very much the MVP. Two contracts are free; full access is paid. I’m mostly looking for feedback from other builders on positioning, pricing, and whether this solves a real pain or just my pain.
I wrote up the full thinking here if you're interested in reading more:
Happy to answer any questions and hear feedback!
