Two professors from Wharton decided to do an interesting experiment:
The experiment:
Students at Wharton generated thousands of product/ venture ideas.
200 human ideas were compared with 100 ideas from ChatGPT. The instructions given to both humans/ChatGPT: “generate an idea for a new product or service appealing to college students that could be made available for $50 or less.”
The results: To measure the quality of the ideas, the responses were translated into a purchase probability using simple market-research techniques.
A human-generated idea had a 40% purchase probability, vanilla GPT-4 had a 47% purchase probability, and GPT-4 seeded with good ideas had a 49% purchase probability. In short, ChatGPT is not only faster, but also better at idea generation on average.
The kicker: Among the best 10% of ideas, 5 were created by humans. 35 were created by ChatGPT.
What this means for us: You (probably) underestimate ChatGPT when it comes to generating an idea for your new feature/product/venture.
Interesting, yet when an article is involved around a research I would always bother to read the source - we all know that some things can go lost in "translation" :)
Link: https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/LLM-Ideas-Working-Paper.pdf
first, it was interesting to find out that the task given was to come up with an idea for a physical product, not a software or a service.
How did they asses the top ideas quality? simply used a panel of customers in the target market, asking them how likely is for them to purchase the product. Is this consider enough validation in today's market?
If you are carious about what are the top 10% ideas as I was - find them on the Appendix on page 13.
in the "concluding" part they are saying (among other things) that the research only proves that LLMs can perform better than the average innovator (not better than any innovator). Its greatest advantage lies in the lack of judgment that leads to extreme productivity (imagine not having feelings, senses, preferences, culture, etc). However, when it comes to selling for humans isn't it sometimes a must to understand their lack of rationality?
Overall I see it as another tool in your toolbox. Don't give up on your human partners just yet :), instead diverse your team with an LLMs.
Seeing that list in the appendix is... really illuminating...
All of the student ideas were "creative". IE: stuff like "Adaptiflex: a cord extension to fit big adapters". It literally needed an explanation.
The ChatGPT ideas were almost made up entirely of stuff that already exists in the market. Mini vacuum, noise-cancelling headphones, solar-powered gadget charger, a seat cushion.
This is evidence that ChatGPT knows how to talk about stuff already in the market, but not how to differentiate, or create anything.
TL;DR: Another sensationalist AI headline.
Looks like we need to upgrade to GPT4. This post finally convinced me. Thanks for sharing!
Keep in mind the cost of GPT4 if you plan on building via their API, it is ridiculously expensive
Dear Darko,
Thank you for sharing this intriguing experiment comparing idea generation between humans and ChatGPT. The results indeed shed light on the potential of AI, particularly ChatGPT, in generating product ideas.
The data shows that ChatGPT, especially when seeded with good ideas, demonstrated an impressive ability to generate high-quality ideas, surpassing human performance in the top 10% category. This suggests that ChatGPT could be a valuable tool for idea generation across various applications.
However, it's worth noting that while AI excels at generating ideas, the human touch remains essential for refining and transforming those ideas into reality. The experiment highlights the synergy between human creativity and AI's ability to generate a wide array of concepts.
Overall, this experiment underscores the evolving role of AI in idea generation, and it prompts us to explore how AI can complement human creativity rather than replace it.
It's pretty obvious at this point that trying to fight AI is pointless, humans are creatures filled with capabilities to make errors, AI at this point in time are being trained with datasets to become efficient, fast and flawless ways to produce products and product ideas.
It's not about trying to outdo AI. There's no way to fight something that can pull it's information from it's data on the fly and get to work.
I know there's these crazy headlines about AI taking over but I think the best thing to do at this point is rather embrace AI and use them as a tool to get your work done more efficiently, Photoshop as an example was already making it so much more easier to crop backgrounds out of images on the fly now with it's tools that trying to do it ourselves is time consuming and frankly for my passion pointless. I'd much rather build my workflow so much faster with AI taking over the tedious tasks so I can get to work making the things I enjoy sooner.
There's a paywall between me and the experiment. However, I've read the article "What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?" and can't recommend it enough. Why? It helped me understand how GPT models are ideal for creating clickbaits and exciting texts, but it doesn't mean the meta content is good.
In this case, the meta content goes beyond the product pitch. For example, the market research. What's beyond the elevator pitch of your product?
ChatGPT is good at writing convincing pitches but is terrible at validating a product. He's a perfect assistant, though.
I bet the humans' ideas have a higher chance of working out.
The experiment's results are quite intriguing! It appears that ChatGPT, particularly when seeded with good ideas, demonstrated a notable ability to generate high-quality product or venture ideas, outperforming humans in the top 10% category. This suggests the potential of ChatGPT in idea generation for various applications
I believe that the pinpoint of this news should be on the fact that the best ideas were still the ones generated by humans and that even if the AI might be faster in generating results, there is still need for human touch in order to refine and define good ideas into reality.
This is so interesting
The impact of AI on the future is evident. I used to believe that humans could always do better at this job, but I was wrong.
The only problem chatgpt have is context. You need to give the chatgpt context. You need to tell chatgpt something like, we have this and this problem which is for this and this user who live where and then from that come out with solution idea.
That way the idea will not be very general and more specific and way better.
I am building a tool that give google trend , seo and keyword analysis to chatgpt and come out with the best blog topic for your business.
The chatgpt will have data about what your business do, who you customer is, the google trend seo and keywords, top articles on those keywords and reddit posts related to those keywords.
From all those context it will come out with the best topic for your business blog.
If you interested to try can checkout creativeblogtopic.com
I used to struggle with coming up with product ideas, for sooo many years. It wasn't until the pandemic that I had enough life experiences to start coming up with better ideas. Now that ChatGPT can come up with better ideas, heck, I should use it more to replicate that experiment and test more ideas
A dime a dozen, even more so now than before, in the new AI reality.
Maybe when an LLM is trained on millions of human brains and centuries of research,it maybe a little smarter at a task like this than a few real humans
WOw