Freedom, Utility, and Speculation. A demand model for crypto

There are 3 demand drivers for crypto, and understanding them helps me make sense of decisions people /projects in this space make. They are


All models are wrong, but is this useful?

Narrative violations and LARPers are easy to spot using this model. Do you think the people are distributed differently, then you can change the number of people in each part and see if that fits your model of the world.

This is also helpful in deciding what products to build or what markets to go after.

For example
+Most teams are building for the speculators market, because that is an early adapter and has lowest time to value. I can spend $1000/month on data becuase I can make better trades to make money quicker.
+Anything that successfully targets the “Use” market, will get massive consumer adoption, probably break your onchain product, and force you to make decisions that show your core beliefs – i.e. cryptokitties building a more centralized chain that is fully abstracted from the user.
+Targeting the “Freedom” market is difficult and you cannot use regular marketing techniques and measure the business on consumer metrics. – if your users dont want you to know them, then it is difficult to market to them.

Hacking this model

LARPing as a Freedom Maxi while being a speculation maxi is an easy and crowded marketing strategy. It gets you customers who are also financially motivated and will leave when the money stops.

Ponzinomics is great for growing early, but the quicker you can reasonably and profitably move to the Use market, the longer your business will last.

Building for the freedom market will need tech insight and large upfront investment. So perfect for old-timey venture bet.

There are a lot of discretionary funds being marketed as venture funds. So look at what they hodl for how long.

The flip side of #degen as a marketing strategy is enough plebs will be rekt for the usage market to be targetted.

  1. 1

    I like your thinking Naveen.

    IMO Ultimately, there needs to be a speculation demand in order to drive the Use and Freedom outcomes, which I think most in the crypto community really believe in, especially the buidlers.

    I also think that ponzinomics are going to be a way of life for a little while, until the market matures and start being able to spot value in a better way. Besides, degens and memes are fun, and too many people enjoy gambling and will never stop no matter where the usage market goes.

  2. 1

    What does the community think? Is this an easy hueristic?

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