Hi Indie Hackers ,building a tool to predict revenue from pipeline

by Rev Man

Hey everyone,

I'm Manish, currently working on a small SaaS called RevPredict.

The idea came from something I kept seeing while talking to founders: when people look at their sales pipeline, it's easy to mentally count the whole number as future revenue.

Example:
Pipeline shows $200k → founders expect a big month.

But when the month ends, maybe only $40k–$60k actually closes.

Deals slip, timelines move, decision makers disappear.

So I'm experimenting with a tool that tries to estimate expected revenue from pipeline deals using probabilities and signals instead of optimistic guesses.

Right now I'm mostly trying to understand how founders actually forecast revenue.

Curious how people here do it:

• CRM forecast?
• spreadsheets?
• historical close rates?
• gut feeling?

Would love to hear how others approach this.