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How to estimate market's volume?

Hello indiehackers,
I started my idea (https://www.indiehackers.com/@RubinWood/feedback-learning-drawing-online-5466819939) from some marketing research and I'm stuck at the very beginning.
I would like to know first, how big is the market. How many people would like to learn drawing online? Is there any demand on such service? Are there any drawing tutors that would like to teach online?
I tried Google Keyword Research and if I search by "online drawing class" or so I see there are not many searches (100 - 1K monthly) but competitions is medium to high. As the result top of page bid is $1 - $6 what is pretty high I think.
So, what does it mean? Is it worth to even try to create a landing page or demand is obviously so low with high competition that it wouldn't worth efforts?
Which others research should I make?
THANKS!!

  1. 2

    Here's one method I've used in the past to estimate market size:

    1. Do keyword research. Collect enough related searches and long tail keywords that you feel those keywords are a good sample of who your audience is.
    2. Use Google Trends to find the top geographical locations related to these keywords. Be specific! Not countries, but divided into the smallest possible zones that still have enough people for the market size you'd like to start with. Note: Trends only shows relative activity, not absolute. You'll also need to search for the population size of those regions.
    3. On Trends, I also note the historical activity for those keywords. These trends can give me insights into the habits (trends) of those people. Related keywords outside of your project (from slightly related industries) can give more insight into how much they value a certain concept (e.g. data privacy in general versus the GDPR specifically) and the combined historical graphs can serve as a very rough estimate of how likely they are to feeling positive about adopting your new project.
    4. I then add the population density for those geographical locations. (= reach more people with less effort)

    With the above, you have a list of possible markets, the likeliness of adoption, population density, etc.

    That has been a good starting point for me in the past. A potential next step is to reach out to someone in those markets manually (an influencer, someone with reach on social media or a blog, an existing related company) and use that channel to get first users onto your landing page / MVP to validate (= paying customers).

    1. 1

      Thank you very much for the great answer!
      But I still have several questions.
      1.

      Collect enough related searches
      Not sure, what exactly do you mean?
      How can I distinguish "short tail" and "long tail" words there?

      1. I tried Google Trends too but it looked to me less informative because it didn't show any absolute number, but just relative volume of search. Do you think it still has value?

      That has been a good starting point for me in the past. A potential next step is to reach out to someone in those markets manually (an influencer, someone with reach on social media or a blog, an existing related company) and use that channel to get first users onto your landing page / MVP to validate (= paying customers).
      Not sure what this step includes. How reaching some influencer can give me an access to the channel?
      Thanks!!