I analyzed 1 million software purchases to see which buying intent signals matter

Every sales tool and RevOps guru keeps pushing "buying signals" – track when companies get funding! Monitor job postings! Watch for executive hires! The promise is that you can predict which companies are about to buy your product.

As someone building in the B2B space, I got curious: do these signals actually work, or is it just marketing hype from data enrichment companies?

So I did what any good indie hacker would do – I tested it myself.

The experiment:

I analyzed 1 million B2B software purchases from March-September 2025 using real transaction data from Bloomberry. I focused on actual team software purchases (not individual subscriptions) and controlled for company size (200-1000 employees) to avoid skewing from tiny startups or massive enterprises.

I tested 8 different "buying signals" that every sales tool tracks:

Headcount growth
Recent funding
VP/executive hires
Job posting increases
AI tool purchases
Recent software purchases
SOC compliance
New office openings

🔥 Signals that actually work:

Companies that bought AI tools → 46% more software purchases
This was the strongest predictor by far. When a company buys ChatGPT Enterprise or Claude for Teams, they're basically saying "we're in upgrade-everything mode." These aren't just AI early adopters – they're companies systematically modernizing their entire tech stack.

Companies growing headcount 20%+ → 38% more purchases
Makes perfect sense. More people = more operational complexity = need for new tools. They were 65% more likely to buy knowledge base tools, 54% more likely to get help desk software.

Companies that bought software recently → 38% more purchases
Once they start spending on tools, they keep spending. Budget's allocated, processes are in place, and one tool often reveals gaps that need other tools.

🤷 Signals that barely matter:
Recent funding → 25% more purchases
Way lower than expected. Most funding goes to hiring and marketing, not internal tools. Many funded startups are still in "prove product-market fit" mode.

VP hires → 28% more purchases
Decent signal but not amazing. New execs bring their favorite tools but also consolidate existing ones.

❌ Signals that are basically useless:
Job posting increases → 7% more purchases
Huge disappointment. Job postings are just intent to hire, not actual hiring. Plus there's a massive lag between posting jobs and needing software for those roles.

SOC compliance → 0% correlation
Literally zero. Companies already have the required tools before they start the compliance process.

New offices → 11% more purchases
Weak signal, though my data collection here wasn't great.

What this means for indie hackers:

If you're building sales tools or trying to identify good prospects for your B2B product, stop chasing vanity signals like funding announcements.
Focus on companies that are actively modernizing – especially those adopting AI tools. They've already proven they're willing to spend money on cutting-edge software and have leadership buy-in for new technology.

For your own business: if you're selling to other businesses, the best prospects are companies that just bought complementary tools or are rapidly scaling their teams. These companies are in active "solve our operational problems" mode.

Anyone interested can read my entire methodology and the full study here: https://bloomberry.com/blog/i-analyzed-1m-software-purchases-to-find-the-strongest-buyer-intent-signals/