I build a tool that screens startup ideas for solo founders, and it keeps a record of every candidate it refuses and which check it failed. I had never looked at the whole pile at once. Last week I did, and the distribution surprised me.
33 runs, June to September. 1,728 candidates in, 895 dropped — 51.8%.
The single most common reason, by a distance: 496 ideas were dropped because I could not find a single documented complaint behind them. Not "the market is crowded", not "the economics don't work" — nobody had written the problem down anywhere I could find it. That is 55% of all refusals.
After that it gets more specific:
270 — too much hands-on support for one person
193 — leans too hard on one platform
148 — just an AI wrapper with no product underneath
129 — can't charge enough
109 — hard for a solo founder to sell or run
And the part I keep thinking about: 69% of the dropped ideas failed more than one check. A weak idea is rarely weak in one place. The worst one failed four.
Three things this is not, before anyone asks:
It is not an accuracy claim. I have no idea whether the 895 would have sold. Nobody does. All I can say is that the gate was applied consistently and wrote down its reasons.
It is not a market sample. These runs are overwhelmingly my own accounts — I have had one paying customer. This is a record of a machine's behaviour, not of demand.
The checks are my opinions, encoded. If you think "no documented problem" is a bad reason to drop an idea, that is the conversation I actually want.
The data is public and reusable (CC BY 4.0) if anyone wants to argue with it or reuse it: https://whittleos.com/benchmark — the JSON is at https://whittleos.com/gate-census.json
The question I cannot answer from my own data: for those of you who shipped something that worked — was there a written complaint behind it before you started, or did you find the problem by living it?
How did you decide this was worth building in the first place?
Helpful post. How did you get your first bit of traction?
Interesting take. Would you still recommend this approach to someone starting today?
Great breakdown. What feedback have you had from early users?
Interesting. How are you measuring whether it is working?
Curious how long it took before you saw the first real results?
Interesting approach. What was the hardest part to get right?
Thanks for writing this up. Bookmarking it for later.
Thanks for writing this up. Bookmarking it for later.
Thanks. If you get to it — the bit I'd like a second opinion on is whether
"no documented problem" (55% of the refusals) is the gate being right, or me
over-weighting written evidence. Did the problem behind your last project exist
in writing before you started?