"I’m decently exposed to smart successful people and not a single one of them wants their kids to go to college."

I believe this is rather limited to the US.

In Germany, college is extremely affordable or completely free, and it's a great time to party, build your people skills, and expand your network of friends. Plus there are benefits to being exposed to topics you aren't usually interested in. Plus there are part time teaching and research jobs available. In my opinion, it'll give teenagers a great start into their work life.

What makes college horrible in the US is the debt. Replace that with savings from living in a cheap dormitory while working part time and you've turned it into a net positive.

I'm a college professor, and I don't expect my kid (10 y.o.) to go to college.

Higher ed is going to collapse over the next decade. The current model is not sustainable. A high GPA doesn't indicate anything other than a person is good at following instructions. And expensive private colleges are just gateways to an alumni club. That network is valuable, but only if you utilize it.

People should focus on independent learning, building a network, & developing skills, which is what we all have to do anyway after college. Most importantly, build a portfolio that showcases what you can do. A quality web-based portfolio demonstrating real experiences and skills is more valuable than a college degree.

Credentialing is still a problem, but lots of opportunities for establishing credentialing systems. Only a few professions need actual degrees for credentials.

Paul Graham disagrees but maybe he's not smart or successful enough.

i get the sentiment but any thoughtful parent knows that it's really not about them... it's about their kids.

feelings aside, 100%. i have 3 kids and each one is so different... i can see one of them headed down the "traditional" route and my wife and i's best guess is that the other two might do something outside of it...

... but, it's nothing more than a guess!

our job is to listen to our kids, observe how they behave, and create a safe place to dialogue about college and alt-ed programs. doesn't really matter how it shakes out.

This is just survivorship bias. Remember that most people are not smart and successful, nor will the child of one who is smart and successful necessarily be either themselves. College still provides some of the highest leverage that one can achieve, we should not discount these facts just because someone somewhere may not want to send their child to college.

I think this sentiment comes from people looking back on the debt they accumulated (over 100k in my case, paid off a couple years back) and questioning the ROI based on tangible benefits and knowledge they received.

Easy to do in hindsight, but I don't think it quite holds up in reality. It's easy to say that kids now should just self-direct themselves to work on projects or build networks, but college is where you figure out how to do those things in the first place. Without an environment that forces you to do those things on your own while getting socialized, I feel like we would end up adrift and less able to make connections in the real-world.

Undergraduate universities as they are now, are probably too focused on credentialling and socializing, but I think the other benefits are still there in smaller amounts and there's not really a viable alternative at the moment.

Not to mention, if you go to a public school or live outside the US, the ROI is pretty clear and this isn't even a question. So this is really just about a really small subset of people in the US considering private schools.

College degrees are the next taxi medallions. The second the market accepts better solutions, the value of most degrees will plummet.

Degrees for licensed professions will still be the standard, but the majority of degrees don't fall into this category.

I completely agree, we are not quite there yet, but think we will be. As a parent of 4 kids I am putting thru college, I don't think there is much value unless you are coming out with a specific licensed skill - i.e. RN, MD etc.

If it was me, knowing what I know now, I wouldn't have gone - not because of the cost, but because of the limited actual value vs 4 years of actually learning real skills (was a CS major).

This pandemic has pretty much proven that a lot of college is a waste of time and money - paying 10's of thousands of dollars per year to watch youtube videos and take tests on line - tell me again why college needs to be so expensive?

I don't care either way. It's up to my kids. So much of college time and resources is wasteful and ineffective. They sold us a dream that ended up in nothing but debt for most people.

But you need it for some professions. While other professions or career paths have no need for college degree/experience.

I'm going to focus on teaching my kids the value of hard work, and being a self-motivated, self-starting pursuer of their passions.

Define "success" in these people

The key word is "successful," not "smart."

I've said repeatedly in other spaces, that you go to college for three reasons: A third-party credential, external motivation to hit deadlines, and building your first professional network. You can learn anywhere, so that's not on the list. If you're getting your first job because family friends make a position for you, college is a waste.

It's like the trendy "I live frugally, and so can you" articles, where the advice is second-hand clothes and make your own coffee, but the unspoken reality is "My parents paid for my education and bought me a house."

Non-elite colleges are eventually going away, because they don't really understand what they sell and focus outreach on (technical) knowledge. But kids without well-connected families will still need to pay someone willing to put their reputation on the line to vouch for the kids' abilities to learn things, follow directions, and hit deadlines.

I liked your follow-up "Unpopular take" - resonated well with me. I think it all depends what one wants to do in life and the path they take. All things being equal, if you are competing for an open position somewhere that degree will at least show me you have what it takes to stick to it and succeed at something.

I do not think they are smart.

There is nothing new about not getting a lot out of a college education if you do not bother to pursue it, but what is relatively new is the explosive cost. You can however, still get worthwhile degrees if you decide to pursue them.

I know quite a few young people in their (now later) 20s that worked hard in high school, pursued at least a somewhat job friendly degrees and have entirely paid off their student debt. The days of getting any four year degree and walking into a good paying job disappeared a long time ago.

American views on education I feel are stuck in the 1980s - about the time that educational researchers were already saying a seismic shift was already starting. You get a degree. You take responsibility for retooling your skills. And you retool your skills every 3-5 years. Expect people to change careers on average of three times.

So if you listen to these 'smart' people, be prepared to be locked out of most high paying careers. There are however, state level apprenticeship programs that do not require a four year degree, but can lead to well paying jobs.

This comment is dripping with privilege. How many of those "smart, successful people" went to college themselves?