I tested 3 popular AI startup ideas. Here's what happened.
While improving my startup validation tool, I tested three very common AI startup ideas.
The results surprised me.
- AI Resume Builder
Verdict: KILL
Why?
- Extremely crowded market
- Weak switching incentives
- Easy to replace with ChatGPT
- Difficult distribution
- AI Cold Email Generator
Verdict: MAYBE
Why?
- Clear business value
- Companies already spend money in this category
- But competition is brutal
- Distribution is still hard
- AI Tool for Dentists to Get More Google Reviews
Verdict: MAYBE
Why?
- Clear customer
- Clear business outcome
- Easier ROI story
- But still difficult to acquire first customers
The biggest lesson:
Most founders spend too much time thinking about features.
The real questions are:
- Who pays?
- Why do they pay?
- Where do the first 10 customers come from?
- Can you reach them without ads?
Building is getting easier.
Distribution is not.
In fact, getting the first customer is often harder than building the product itself.
What AI startup category do you think is the most overhyped right now?
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Interesting.
The thing I'd be careful with is that startup ideas can fail for very different reasons, but a validation tool can end up labeling them the same way.
The risk isn't making the wrong verdict.
The risk is becoming confident about the wrong decision.
That sounds subtle, but it tends to matter more as the tool becomes more opinionated.