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18 Comments

Is a buy offer @ 2.2 x ARR a good offer?

There is a 3 year old SaaS side project which has received a buy offer @ 2.2 times the average annual revenue.
All I do is customer support. Many just self-help with the knowledge base. The SEO takes care of sign ups. Zero spend on ads.

I do have plans to improve the project, work more on additional SEO keywords (already on first page for important keywords)

Exiting is tempting as I can work on a new project. Also the space is getting too crowded.

Is the multiple of 2.2 for an automated side project good enough?

on February 5, 2022
  1. 3

    Counteroffer with x3.5 - never go below 3.
    x2.2 is simply too low unless there is a reason on your side for it (you are losing customers fast, the market is dying, you need to monetize it quickly).
    Growing competition can mean only that there is space to grow.
    This increases your value, not decreases.
    The average multiple is 3-6 now (depending on the age of SAAS, market, growth, brand, and a few more factors). It can go much higher, but it also can go lower (there are so many variables that affect this).

    Just do a counteroffer and see what happens.
    If you really want to sell and you won't get what you want from the offerer, just list your SAAS on SAAS acquisition marketplaces.
    Sure, his offer is easy to take, but clearly, he is trying to benefit from the simplicity of it, while getting it at half price.

    Just a note - this is advice for a regular SAAS. Your market is unknown, the same goes for what you offer, and what is value given. This can change everything really.

    1. 1

      Thanks. Good points here. Temptation will not help.

  2. 1

    I’d start at 10x and negotiate down until the x you’re willing to accept.

    You never know and it shows you highly value your startup.

    1. 1

      Thanks for the tip. 👍

  3. 1

    Hard to say. Do you see your company surviving more than 2 years with the same monthly revenue?

    1. 1

      Yes. It can. But seeing a dip in new revenue due to competition. Needs work on SEO.

  4. 1

    What’s the company? Url?

    If you’re serious about selling, put it on microacquire and see if you get comparable offers. You can use those offers to negotiate the current offer as well.

    Depending on your growth curve, revenue, profit, support demands, industry, etc… a 2.2 multiple could be great or horrible.

    1. 1

      That's a good way. I guess I am simply rushing.

    1. 1

      Thanks for responding.

  5. 1

    It sounds very much on the low side.

    1. 1

      Noted. Thanks for your response.

  6. 1

    I don't know about indie hacker businesses specifically, but this seems to be comparable to the revenue to market cap ratio that's used for startups and public companies. In that metric, 2.2 is very low for SaaS businesses afaik. Current multiples seem to be between 12 and 16x ( see https://www.saas-capital.com/blog-posts/2021-private-saas-company-valuations/ ) even tho they have been lower in the past.

    1. 3

      12 - 16x seems way to high. Baremetrics had $1m ARR and sold for $4m (?) making it a 4x multiple. I don't think anything higher than 6xmARR is a realistic SaaS exit, unless you have some kind of technological edge (some kind of patent).

      1. 1

        Yeah, maybe it's different for indie hackers vs. VC funded. But to quote the article (and I assume they have done their research): "Applying the historical private company discount of 28% to the current market, the estimated valuation multiple for private SaaS companies is currently 12.0x ARR." And some VC funded companies I know got acquired for 18-20x their ARR.

        1. 3

          Interesting perspective - why should VC funded businesses get a higher multiple?

          1. 1

            Honestly I have no idea and could only speculate - but articles I have read and stories I have heard / experienced on the VC funded side have multiples that are in line with the article that I've cited, and at the same time people here claim that 3-6x is a good multiple for indie hackers.

            1. 2

              Yeah it’s strange. I also thought 3-6x was low when I read it the comments above. I’m used to seeing 10-20x for tech companies. I also would’ve thought a profitable indie hacker company is a lower risk purchase than a VC funded “valley of death”-esque business, and so expected to be on the higher end ie 20x. Not claiming to be an expert in this area though

        2. 2

          Also want to mention that multiple of ARR falls a bit short of understanding the acquisition. Some of the things that also matter are:

          • what's the growth rate / forward-looking ARR?
          • is the deal strategic for the acquirer (e.g. buying a competitor with superior tech)?
          • is it a talent acquisition?
          • what are the current multiples for ARR (e.g. in 2009 it was actually around 2x - see chart from article)?
          • is the company failing? do you have to sell or go bankrupt?
            etc.