🚀 Launched Quantypace on PH today: Monte Carlo forecasting for engineering teams (solo dev, Linear + GitHub)

Just launched Quantypace on Product Hunt.

What it is:
Flow metrics + probabilistic forecasting for engineering teams using
Linear + GitHub.

The problem I'm solving:
Engineering managers get asked "when will this ship?" daily and answer
with guesses. Stakeholders lose trust. I've lived this pain for years.

The solution:
Monte Carlo simulation using historical cycle time data. Instead of
"probably 2-3 weeks", answer with "85% confident by March 22" (P85 date).

Tech stack:

• Backend: .NET 8 (REST API, CQRS pattern)
• Frontend: React 19 + TypeScript
• Infrastructure: Fly.io + Supabase
• Integrations: Linear + GitHub OAuth
• Cost: $25/mo (bootstrapped)

What I built:

• DORA metrics (deployment freq, lead time, MTTR, change failure rate)
• Monte Carlo forecasting (P50/P85/P95 confidence intervals)
• Ceremony packs (auto-generated planning/retro materials)
• Improvement hub (track if process changes actually work)
• 10 free tools (no signup - SEO play)
• Code-to-deploy visibility
• Automated insights

Pricing strategy:

• $29/mo per team (not per user)
• Competitors: $25-80 per user = $225/mo for 3-person team
• Beta special: $15/mo first year

Key learnings so far:

1. Reddit validation: Posted to r/Linear + r/SideProject = 891 views,
   0 signups. Why? No demo CTA. Fixed in 48 hours.
2. Competitor appeared: Tempo (usetempo.dev) launched on r/EngineeringManagers
   11 days ago, free, DORA focus. Our differentiation: Monte Carlo
   forecasting (they confirmed not building it).
3. Feature bloat temptation: Had to resist adding every feature Tempo
   has. Staying focused on forecasting.

Current status:

• Live on Product Hunt: https://www.producthunt.com/products/quantypace?utm_source=other&utm_medium=social
• Interactive demo: https://www.quantypace.com/demo
• 0 revenue (launching beta today)
• Goal: 50 beta users in next 30 days

What I'm learning:

• Per-team pricing resonates way more than per-user with small teams
• "Ceremony packs" feature getting more interest than expected
• 10 free tools driving organic traffic already (SEO working)

Ask:
If you've struggled with delivery forecasting or stakeholder communication,
would love your feedback. What am I missing? What would make this more useful?

Also: If this resonates, appreciate PH support today: https://www.producthunt.com/products/quantypace?utm_source=other&utm_medium=social

Building in public. Happy to answer questions about tech, pricing,
competitive positioning, or anything else.