Modified Orange Juice Test

We often think of bad salespeople as people that are bad at selling. While true, there’s another type. The type that says “sure, we can do that!” without having a solid understanding of what the solution to that particular problem actually entails.

These projects end up being stressful for all parties involved as they typically go over time and over budget.

You don’t want to have people like that in your organization, but also, you should avoid working with companies like that.

In “The Secrets of Consulting,” Gerald M. Weinberg, gives the following advice he got from a client,

Edited for brevity.

“I’d be curious to know how come you gave me this contract?” I asked.

LeRoy [raised] his juice glass in a mockup toast. “You got the contract because you were the only one who passed The Orange Juice Test”

“The Orange Juice Test? But how? I don’t even drink orange juice”

“Oh, The Orange Juice Test has nothing really to do with orange juice. It’s just named after one particular application of the test in which it’s used to select a conference hotel. But you can use the test for selecting any service.”

“Like consultants?”

“Or software houses. Which is how I learned about it. One of my clients told me about it, when I asked her the same question.”

“So how does it work?”

“Well, imagine that you had to choose a site for an annual sales convention, accommodating 700 people. When you see the banquet manager for a hotel, you pose the following problem: The founder of your company has established a hallowed tradition for your sales meetings, requiring that each morning’s sales breakfast starts with a short toast to success, using orange juice. You then explain the breakfast has to start at 7 a.m., and that each of the 700 people must have a large glass of freshly squeezed orange juice.” [Freshly squeezed no more than two hours before serving.]

“Well, that’s the test. After posing this problem you listen to what the banquet manager tells you.”

“They’ll probably say it can’t be done.”

“That might happen,” LeRoy said, “in which case they flunk The Orange Juice Test.”

“But I know managers who would say, ‘No problem’, just to get the business”

“… which also flunks The Orange Juice Test. They might be lying, or they might really think there’s no problem. I don’t know which is worse, but I don’t want to have my convention at either place”

“So who passes?”

[The people who say] “That’s a real problem. I can help you with it, … and this is how much it will cost.”

The idea behind The Orange Juice test is to weed out the negative people who impulsively say something can’t be done when it’s merely very difficult.

And the people that don’t grasp the complexity of a project. There’s no point in “getting a low price if they can’t do the job.”

However, there are people with an extreme internal locus of control. People that embrace Jocko Willink’s “Good.” philosophy.

In order to prevent you from weeding out superstars who you mistook for being delusional, simply follow it up “Seems like this is easy?”

This is called labeling in modern negotiation theory. It’s a more effective way of acquiring information without leading the subject.

What you’re looking is that they’ll say “oh no!” and walk you through the difficulties. If they say “Yup!” they’re in over their head and don’t understand the challenges of the project.

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