Most founders are fixing the wrong half of their churn

Most churn isn't a product problem. But it shows up looking exactly like one.

I talked to a founder at $73k MRR who'd spent 8 months fixing churn. Better onboarding, improved product tours, regular NPS surveys. He'd basically rebuilt the early activation flow from scratch.

Churn barely moved.

Then we looked at his Stripe data. 34% of his churn was failed payments that never retried correctly. Not product problems. Not fit issues. Billing infrastructure that wasn't working.

8 months solving the wrong thing.

Honestly, I thought this was an edge case when I first saw it. It's not. Most SaaS dashboards show you one number, subscribers lost. They don't tell you how much of that number is "someone decided to leave" vs. "a card expired and nothing caught it." Those are completely different problems. But they look identical until you separate them.

So I built a tool to show you the split.

You put in your MRR and processor, and it estimates how much of your churn is likely billing infrastructure vs. actual product churn, based on average failure rates by processor, retry timing behavior, and recovery benchmarks across SaaS companies at similar MRR stages.

It's a rough estimate, not a diagnosis. But it's the right question to answer before you spend another sprint on onboarding and wonder why the number didn't move.

https://recurflux.com/resources/churn-splitter

Ballpark MRR is fine. Drop it below with your processor and I'll tell you what the split looks like. Done this for a few people this week, the number is almost always surprising.