Most founders confuse pipeline with revenue

While building RevPredict and talking to a few founders, I noticed something interesting.

When people see a $200k pipeline, they subconsciously treat it like future revenue.

But when the month ends, maybe $40k–$60k actually closes.

Deals slip.
Timelines move.
Decision makers disappear.

So pipeline ≠ revenue.

What seems to work better is thinking in probabilities instead of totals.

Example:

Discovery → ~20%
Demo → ~40%
Proposal → ~70%
Negotiation → ~90%

Then the “expected revenue” becomes much more realistic.

I'm curious how other founders here forecast revenue.

Do you rely on:
• CRM forecasts
• spreadsheets
• historical close rates
• gut feeling

Trying to understand how people actually do this in practice.