Hi all,
I'm looking for some feedback on an idea I've got for a prediction market service. Prediction markets have been found to be a good way of distilling the "wisdom of crowds" about yes/no questions, but often run into legal barriers due to regulations around betting and gambling. However, research has found that with the proper weighting of votes and scoring, one can essentially get the same performance from prediction polls. Prediction polls work in the same way, where predictors answer yes/no questions along with their % confidence and are encouraged to revise their answers throughout the length of time the poll is open. The responses of participants who have built up a history of being accurate are weighted higher, as are responses made more recently. The research I'm referencing is here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281765164_Distilling_the_Wisdom_of_Crowds_Prediction_Markets_vs_Prediction_Polls
My idea is to create a platform where universities and enterprises pay to host prediction polls, with the option of making them private and only accessible to people within their organization or accessible to people with the link. I'm considering implementing a teams feature, where groups of users can register themselves as a prediction team, since it has been found that predictors produce better results when they work in teams. With this route I'd also implement a public leaderboard for individuals and teams.
There's at least some precedent for this kind of product being viable (see PredictIt and forecastapp.net), but I'm looking for feedback on the version I've described here.
Thanks!
Interesting idea Max! Creating a platform that offers prediction polls instead of traditional prediction markets is a creative approach to overcome legal barriers. The research you shared highlights the effectiveness of distilling the "wisdom of crowds" through polls. By incorporating proper vote weighting and scoring, you can harness the collective intelligence of participants.
The concept of universities and enterprises hosting prediction polls is intriguing. Making them private for internal use or accessible via a link offers flexibility. Additionally, the potential inclusion of a teams feature aligns with studies showing improved results when predictors collaborate. A public leaderboard for individuals and teams adds a competitive element and encourages participation.
While platforms like PredictIt and forecastapp have demonstrated the viability of similar products, your unique approach brings a fresh perspective. As the future of prediction markets unfolds, it's worth considering the potential integration of decentralized technology like Polkamarkets. Their advancements in decentralized prediction markets could enhance the transparency and efficiency of your platform. Exciting possibilities lie ahead!