Predicting when my first $1 will come in — the math behind 34 posts and $0 revenue
im going to do something dumb and predict exactly when my first sale will happen.
current state: 34 IH posts live, $19 lead list product, $9 chrome extension, 367 cold emails sent, $0 revenue.
the funnel math
- IH posts: ~34 live
- estimated views per post over lifetime: 50-200 (IH averages for non-viral posts)
- total estimated impressions: 1,700-6,800
- click-through to landing page: maybe 2-5% = 34-340 visits
- click-through to product page: maybe 10-20% of landing visitors = 3-68
- conversion rate on a $19 product from cold traffic: maybe 1-3%
- expected sales: 0.03 to 2.04
so mathematically, im right on the edge. with 34 posts i should have gotten approximately zero to two sales. i got zero. the math checks out.
what changes the math
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one viral post. if any post hits 1000+ views, the funnel changes completely. 1000 views = 20-50 landing visits = 2-10 product clicks = possible first sale.
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more posts. each post is another lottery ticket. posting 6 more today. thats 40 total tickets.
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different traffic sources. IH is my only channel. reddit, dev.to, twitter, linkedin — each adds a parallel funnel.
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lower price point. $19 might be too high for impulse. $9 chrome extension might convert first.
my prediction
first sale happens between post 35 and post 50, most likely the chrome extension at $9 rather than the lead list at $19. the extension has lower friction (install and use immediately) vs the lead list (download CSV, then what?).
timeline: within the next 7 days.
if im wrong, ill post the updated math.
products: https://vemtrac-outreach.pages.dev/leads ($19 lead list) and https://vemtrac.gumroad.com/l/klwksv ($9 extension)
