Prediction: Meta Threads is going to fail

As soon as Thread got public I created my account there. I wanted to start off strong on a fresh platform. An attempt to get the ‘early adopter’ advantage that I told you about.

So much for that.

🌶️ Over 10 million people signed up to Threads

That’s a lot of users. I don’t think I can build a following by exploiting expanded reach by being an early user anymore.

That’s okay.

The big question is, with all that traction and buzz that Threads has. Will it kill Twitter?

I am not so convinced. Actually, 😓I think Zuck is signing up for another big disaster after Metaverse.

Here are the reasons why I think so.

🤚1. The product is weak

Threads is new but when I took a look, it seemed like just a glorified message board. None of the interesting little features and add-ons that make Twitter special are there on Threads.

No DMs. Yes, we actually need them.
No hashtags. (You can’t click and discover threads)
No trends.
No GIFs.
No recommendations.
No way to organize publishers.

There’s a lot more. The nuance is missing.

On day #1 people don’t need all of that, but they will need them soon. Threads should have been launched with everything built.

It’s a good MVP but I would launch an MVP to a small pool, not the entire world. Once the expectations arrive and the product runs short, Threads will have a problem.

🤚2. It’s going to hurt Instagram

Okay, so no one is talking about it but this is the most important thing. Meta brought all of its Instagram audience over to Threads.

I don’t get this decision at all.

Yesterday most of the people who celebrated Threads were not Twitter users. They were Instgrammers.

I am sure it stole some people and engagement from Twitter, but I am even more sure that most of the time that was spent on Threads by users, was time spent away from Instagram.

That is going to hurt big soon.

Instagram is a successful product with photos, short videos, and more. The more capable they make Threads (put in all these features), the more they will hurt Instagram.

I think that is going to work out really badly. If traction on Instagram reduces, Meta will not be able to overcome that with any potential traction it gets on Threads.

Definitely fishing in very dangerous waters.

🤚Remember Google+?

Buzz is good but it does not guarantee success. I remember the buzz when Google+ first came out. At that, they were the hottest trailblazer. Becoming the fastest growing social network then, as Threads is now.

That didn’t last long.

Buzz does not mean stickiness.

People on social media like viral trends. Silly memes, stupid videos, crazy stunts. They get billions of viewers, then they are forgotten.

Threads will have to do better than Buzz.

🤚Elon Musk did this

I think Elon Musk should learn to shut up. Most of the buzz on Threads is because of the stunt he pulled.

Inviting Zuck to a cage match after he announced Threads?

What was Musk thinking? Of course, people are interested. He gave Threads a few million users extra.

🤚What’s next?

My account on Threads is up. I am watching, posting. It didn’t let me create my company’s account yet so I still need to figure that out.

At this time it's too early to talk a lot about it, but if you are still not on Threads then go ahead and create your account. Push a few posts out.

If it gathers speed, we’ll be there.

What do YOU think about Threads vs Twitter? Tell me about it.