Remember the Hockey Stick
It has been a while since I thought about it, but 7 years ago, everyone was obsessed with the term "hockey stick growth".
Founders talked about it constantly. News people loved it. It was the 2015 equivalent of MVPs.
But I just thought of something cool.
I'm growing my first SaaS app. And if I'm being honest, I'm getting my butt kicked. It is soul crushing. The unknowns. The unknown unknowns. The incredible highs followed by drastic lows.
Now, I don't want to be dramatic. It is building a business, not fighting cancer. But for me right now, still a struggle.
Today I remembered the hockey stick.
A guy named Bobby Martin wrote a book about The Hockey Stick. In an interview with Forbes he said, "161 of the 172 successful companies I looked at experienced hockey stick growth." A huge increase in sales after years of very low success. And this was true regardless of industry or whether they raised money.
After diving a little further, he calls those low years the Blade Years. The part of the hockey stick that is flat before it shoots up. On average, most successful companies were on the blade for 3 years. With very little revenue, or none.
3 years.
My lesson from that...
Give. It. Time.
I am certainly on the blade. I'm sure lots of you are too. And like I demonstrated in the picture, you don't want to be on the blade. The blade SUCKS!!! You want to be killing it! Printing money! Feeling like your idea and time was worth all that sucking.
But startups take time. Not just effort. Not just hours. Time. Years. It makes me realize I need to be patient with myself. Not getting discouraged when I can't figure things out. I've got years to figure it out.
That is also what makes Indie Hacking so awesome. We often have the time. We don't need to worry about raising money and the pressure that adds. We can just build, market, and sell. Taking as long as we need.
I'm very confident that many of us have an idea that is worth something. I believe I do. But when we are discouraged (because you will be) and want to give up, remember.
There is a hockey stick coming. Give it time!
One of the best posts I’ve seen on here in years. It sticks out like a sore thumb amongst all the one in a million success stories and “12 startups in 3 weeks” garbage.
A realistic experience of building a real business. Yes, it takes time and tenacity and even then you still will likely fail. Harsh, but it’s the reality of this journey.
Bravo.
Really appreciate it @Primer. I agree there has been a lot more of those types of posts here recently. Not sure why those move to the top either. Honestly just stoked you liked it! I'll keep writing!
Wish there were more posts like - ones that keep each other up, raw, organic.
Rather than 'see how x made xRR with this one technique'.
Thanks @BlueLobster! I'll keep writing! Could not agree more
The place used to be like that. It’s has since become another place for gurus and personal brand building.
Playing that game!
Welcome to the club @Germerlo! That is the real grind... not giving up.
Great Post! But how do you exactly find out If you're on a hockey stick when the business could also fail without the hockey stick growth after years?
Honestly great point Thomas. I think the truth is you can't.
There are no guarantees. You could for sure be working on the wrong business. But you'll never really know unless you try.
I think when to quit is a great question. But I think for me, I like to give it those few years. 3-4 seems to be a good place. If it hasn't grown in that amount of time, probably not a winner.
That means you can't take as many shots in life. You got to make them count.