Show IH: Week 1 = 17 outreach, 0 signups. Week 2 = 8 outreach, 3 signups. Here's what I think actually changed.

Three weeks ago I launched StatusPageBuddy — a free hosted status page for indie devs. (Statuspage.io is $29/mo. That's $348/year for one indie project earning $0.)

I tracked every cold touch and every signup. Two weeks in, the data made me
uncomfortable:

• W1: 17 cold touches (IH comments, GitHub issue replies, Dev.to comments) → 0 signups
• W2: 8 touches (mostly email follow-ups + 2 awesome-list PRs) → 3 signups

The reflex read is "outreach finally worked." But none of the 3 W2 signups came from W2 outreach. They traced back to:

• A Supabase Discord #showcase post from W1 → signup 3 days later
• An awesome-status-pages PR merged W1 → signup 9 days later
• One unattributed direct visit on day 14 (asset-network discovery, no referrer)

What I'm actually learning: signups aren't a function of this week's outreach. They're a function of asset accumulation + funnel fixes + time. The day I shipped the SMTP fix (Resend instead of Supabase Auth's default), my first real user signed up 24 hours later. He emailed me back in 49 minutes: "make a better ui of admin so we can use." That sentence is now my Q2 roadmap.

Three weeks in: 3 users, 2 Google clicks, 0 mentions when you ask ChatGPT for "free status page alternatives." Honest answer — I shipped something useful for 3 people and I'm still invisible to 99% of the market that actually needs it.

Wrote up the full breakdown (stack: Next.js 16 + Supabase RLS + Resend, all the SQL, every screenshot, what I'd do differently next time):
👉 https://dev.to/edifierxuhao/i-asked-chatgpt-for-free-status-page-tools-it-didnt-mention-mine-heres-the-nextjs-supabase-15ei

One question for the room: when you first realized your asset network was carrying weight (organic discovery, not direct outreach) — what were the leading signals? I've got the trailing one (unattributed signups). What should I be watching for earlier in the curve?