U.S. e-commerce expected to top $1T by 2022

Adobe and Shopify expect the pandemic’s massive boost of U.S. e-commerce — an increase of $183 billion in sales year-over-year — to continue into 2021 and beyond.

What’s going on: E-commerce is exploding. And a prospective return to "normal" isn't going to slow it down.

In 2020, U.S. consumers spent $813 billion online, which represented a 42 percent growth from 2019. Adobe is estimating U.S. e-commerce will hit between $850 to $930 billion in 2021. And by 2022, they expect e-commerce to break the trillion-dollar mark.

The numbers:

• The $183 billion pandemic boost rivaled the 2020 holiday season during which online shoppers spent $188.2 billion, Adobe reports.

• During the first quarter of 2020, 10 years of e-commerce growth occurred in 90 days, per Shopify.

• Nearly 150 million people across the globe shopped online for the first time during the pandemic, according to Shopify.

• Amazon accounted for nearly a third — 31.4 percent — of all U.S. e-commerce spending in 2020, according to Digital Commerce 360.

Uncertainty remains: Shopify expects 2021 to be a bumpy year for e-commerce companies as COVID restrictions are loosened.

“In 2021 e-commerce growth will be uneven. In the U.S. it’s expected to decelerate to 7.8 percent as retail brick-and-mortar sales rebound from their pandemic plunge. In the Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East, growth will be faster than the U.S. through the first half of the decade.” —Shopify’s Future of Ecommerce Report 2021

A more competitive landscape: Pandemic lockdowns pushed more businesses and consumers online, creating a “rare step change” equating to a 20 percent boost in spending, Adobe reported. That shift spurred many companies — and about 65 percent of Paycheck Protection Program borrowers — to invest in new technology.

With digital content becoming more important to companies’ marketing efforts, expect digital advertising budgets to continue increasing. That’ll lead to more customers — new, returning, young and old — shopping online.

Trends for growth: Here are a few buying trends and stats that may help indie hackers.

• Buy Now, Pay Later methods of payment — popularized with companies like Afterpay, Klarna, Sezzle, and more — have grown 215 percent year-over-year growth in the first two months of 2021. Consumers using this payment method also placed orders that are 18 percent larger on average.

• In the first two months of 2021, consumers spent $121 billion online, a 34 percent increase year-over-year, Adobe found..

• Online sales for home improvement products grew 60 percent year over year in the first two months of 2021, while apparel notched 22 percent growth.

• Shopping holidays like Memorial Day and Labor Day took on less significance with shoppers. Memorial Day 2020 commerce dipped 20 percent less than other days that week and resulted in $32 million less revenue, Adobe found. On Labor Day, spending shrunk 26 percent, accounting for $40 million less.

• The Adobe Exchange and Shopify App Store both offer avenues for creators to sell apps and integrations.