Web3 failed - so there will be a Web4 movement

In the first part of this series, we examined some of the patterns that occur in tech industry cycles.

This part looks at some specific technology areas involved in the current cycle.

Web 4.0

The concept of complete products outlined in the last article helps understand the web's evolution. Web 1.0 was a period of massive capital investment with tremendous advancements in core technology and infrastructure building. While some large winners grew out of web 1.0, there were many failures for several reasons. The biggest reason was that companies had not yet developed the business models needed to deliver complete products.

Web 2.0 built on the core developments of web 1.0 to deliver complete products. While web 1.0 did the hard work, web 2.0 generated most of the success and wealth. Failed ideas of web 1.0 were revisited and gave rise to successful, enduring companies. So while several eCommerce, pet food, and grocery delivery companies died in the late 90s, there are many successful examples of those today. Even the first iteration of SaaS companies, then known as Application Service Providers, failed to take off. However, today SaaS is commonplace. The Internet lived up to its 90s hype; it just happened a decade later with a different set of players.

We seem to be repeating this pattern. Like web 1.0, web 3.0 has seen an influx of capital investment, frantic experimentation, and attempts to solve complex technical problems. However, today's products fall short of their promise with many issues in usability, security, scalability, etc. While the industry is making tremendous advancements in core technology, many of these projects will likely fail. And out of the ashes of web 3.0, we will see web 4.0 emerge with more complete products. It is still early days, and hard to predict the specifics of web 4.0. Nevertheless, web 4.0 may just live up to the web 3.0 hype. I am looking forward to it!

AR/VR

AR/VR is poised to gain mainstream adoption with several new and improved devices on the horizon. The industry is heading toward mixed reality, with AR and VR being different modes of the same device.

What kinds of apps are likely to take off on this platform? Understanding the nature of the AR/VR interface can help us answer that question. You can think of the interface as skeuomorphism on steroids allowing for high levels of visual expressiveness. Successful AR/VR apps will take advantage of this expressiveness to provide deep, immersive experiences. Some examples include:

Gaming & Entertainment: Gaming is the leading and most understood application for AR/VR. Going further, AR/VR will also drive new forms of media. Like mobile popularized bite-size content, AR/VR will popularize new formats that are more immersive.

Online Dating: VR/AR provides people with greater power to express their personality online. On the other side, viewers get a better picture of the person before meeting in real life.

Presentation Apps: We may finally be able to leave the limitations of the linear style imposed by slides-based presentation apps. You can see early examples of this in apps like Prezi or Han Rosling's presentations.

Reality Commerce: Certain types of commerce, such as apparel, will benefit significantly from being able to display a more detailed and interactive model of what you're buying.

It is also interesting to ask the reverse question. What kinds of apps are unlikely to thrive on VR/AR platforms? While heavy skeuomorphism aids visual expressiveness, it can be a liability for applications that need to convey large amounts of information efficiently. For example, text-heavy apps such as e-readers don't gain much from 3D. Apps requiring large amounts of text entry will have an even more significant disadvantage. B2B SaaS apps will also experience skeuomorphism as a burden rather than an advantage.

The first wave of apps will be ports of existing apps to AR/VR. Many of these will not fit the platform and will fade away. As we learn more about the platform, new ones better designed to fit the 3D interaction model will emerge. Developers will also reimagine current apps to fit the new world. For example, messaging apps will look different from mobile devices' current message list interface. A similar pattern has played out in voice computing and smartwatches.

Metaverse

The metaverse has primarily become a marketing term with no clear meaning. Companies are trying to capitalize on the hype by redefining metaverse around their product lines. So Meta's definition is Facebook on steroids, Epic's definition is Fortnite on steroids, etc. While for some, the metaverse is already here, for others, it is an exciting vision of the coming future.

It is essential to separate the metaverse from AR/VR. While much of the former is largely smoke and mirrors today, AR/VR is rooted in more tangible devices, applications, and roadmaps. It is much easier to predict the path of AR/VR than a nebulously defined metaverse.

Healthcare

The pandemic has exposed significant gaps in our healthcare systems. We have realized that our existing systems are not built to keep pace with the fast-moving global pandemic. We have seen problems in every part of the value chain, including detection, data collection, research, drug approvals, manufacturing, and distribution. A common problem has been our ability to react with speed. The tech industry has a crucial role to play in modernizing public health for speed. We are likely to see a massive investment in healthcare tech for years to come.

The pandemic also leaves us with many residual effects, including long COVID, mental health, delayed treatments, new virus mutations, and many more. These effects will increase the demand for healthcare. Technology can play a huge role in scaling current systems and increasing efficiency to meet this challenge.

Privacy Tech

The rampant neglect of privacy in web 2.0 has created a growing problem for the industry. Over-collection of data and weak systems to protect it has led to widespread privacy abuses across the industry. However, pressure from regulators, the press, and platform players are turning the tide. Companies will need to adapt to a privacy-centric world, creating opportunities for new players to fill gaps. Some entrenched players may not shift to the new world order, creating new players to disrupt them. A new generation of privacy-friendly substitutes such as private social networks could replace current ones.

The tech industry is like a runaway rollercoaster with its boom and bust cycles, rag-to-riches stories, superhuman achievements, larger-than-life characters, charismatic fraudsters, and everything in between. It is constantly changing and reinventing itself. Underneath its twists and turns are familiar and repeating patterns. Understanding these patterns help us navigate its waves. Whatever its future holds, we can be sure it will be exciting!