What’s your biggest blind spot in revenue forecasting?

Following up on my last post about revenue forecasting :

Something interesting came up in conversations with a few founders:

Most people don’t miss revenue targets because they lack pipeline.

They miss because they misjudge "which deals will actually close".

Example:
A ₹5L deal in “Negotiation” feels close .. but if it’s been stuck there for 2 weeks, is it really?

So I’m trying to understand:

Do you factor “time in stage” when thinking about your deals?

Or do you mostly go by stage (proposal, negotiation, etc.)?

Also curious .. what’s your biggest blind spot when it comes to forecasting?

If enough of us are thinking about this problem, I’m putting together a small WhatsApp group to go deeper into this (no spam, just builders sharing real scenarios).

Comment if you’d want to be part of it.