Why 25-30% of COD orders in India never get delivered - and what we're doing about it

Cash-on-delivery isn't a niche payment option in India - it's
the default. Over 60% of D2C orders come in as COD, and 25-30% of those fail to deliver. I kept seeing the same pattern talking to Shopify merchants,
they'd track their RTO rate as a percentage and move on, without ever calculating the real cost. Once you add up the forward shipping already paid, the reverse pickup, the ad spend already spent acquiring that customer, and the inventory sitting in transit for a week - a single failed COD order runs ₹800-1,100. The frustrating part is that most of these failures aren't random. First-time buyers, incomplete addresses, late-night orders - the signals are usually visible the moment the order is placed. Nobody was scoring for this before dispatch. That's what CODFlip does - scores every COD order for return risk instantly, then sends a targeted WhatsApp nudge only to the risky ones, offering an easy switch to prepaid before the courier is ever involved. No blanket discounts, no messaging customers who were always going to pay. Still early days. Would genuinely love feedback from anyone who's dealt with COD-heavy markets - India, MENA, Southeast Asia - whether or not CODFlip is the right fit for you.

What's your experience been with COD returns, if any?