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Why I Built a Velocity Calculator After Our Team Missed 4 Deadlines in a Row

Our sprints were consistently failing because we kept guessing capacity. Built a simple velocity calculator that finally gave us realistic planning data. Now we hit 90% of our commitments.

The Painful Pattern

Four months ago, our small team had the same sprint planning conversation every two weeks:

"How much can we commit to this sprint?"
"Uh... we did 15 story points last time, so maybe 20?"

The result: Four consecutive sprints where we delivered half of what we promised. Morale tanking, stakeholders frustrated, and I felt like a terrible project manager.

The Lightbulb Moment
During yet another failed sprint retrospective, I realized we were making decisions based on wishful thinking, not data.

I grabbed our last 6 sprint results:

Sprint 1: 8 points

Sprint 2: 22 points

Sprint 3: 15 points

Sprint 4: 28 points

Sprint 5: 12 points

Sprint 6: 19 points

Average: 17.3 points
Range: 8-28 points

The revelation: We should plan for 12-20 points, not the fantasy numbers we kept using.

What I Built
A dead-simple velocity calculator that takes your historical sprint data and gives you realistic planning ranges.

Input: Your last 6-10 sprint velocities
Output: Average velocity + realistic planning range

Example:

  • Your range: 12-24 story points

  • Plan conservatively: 12-16 points

  • Plan optimistically: 20-24 points

The Results

  • Since using data-driven planning:

  • Sprint success rate: 90% (up from 40%)

  • Team confidence: Way higher - no more impossible commitments

  • Stakeholder trust: They actually believe our timelines now

The secret: Planning within your proven capacity instead of hoping for best-case scenarios.

Why This Works

  1. Removes guesswork - Your past performance predicts future capacity

  2. Accounts for reality - Includes your good and bad sprints

  3. Builds trust - Consistent delivery beats over-promising

The tool is at https://www.teamcamp.app/resources/agile-velocity-calculator

What is your team's biggest sprint planning challenge? Sometimes the simplest data makes the biggest difference.

posted to Icon for group Product Launch
Product Launch
on August 22, 2025
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