Our sprints were consistently failing because we kept guessing capacity. Built a simple velocity calculator that finally gave us realistic planning data. Now we hit 90% of our commitments.
The Painful Pattern
Four months ago, our small team had the same sprint planning conversation every two weeks:
"How much can we commit to this sprint?"
"Uh... we did 15 story points last time, so maybe 20?"
The result: Four consecutive sprints where we delivered half of what we promised. Morale tanking, stakeholders frustrated, and I felt like a terrible project manager.
The Lightbulb Moment
During yet another failed sprint retrospective, I realized we were making decisions based on wishful thinking, not data.
I grabbed our last 6 sprint results:
Sprint 1: 8 points
Sprint 2: 22 points
Sprint 3: 15 points
Sprint 4: 28 points
Sprint 5: 12 points
Sprint 6: 19 points
Average: 17.3 points
Range: 8-28 points
The revelation: We should plan for 12-20 points, not the fantasy numbers we kept using.
What I Built
A dead-simple velocity calculator that takes your historical sprint data and gives you realistic planning ranges.
Input: Your last 6-10 sprint velocities
Output: Average velocity + realistic planning range
Example:
Your range: 12-24 story points
Plan conservatively: 12-16 points
Plan optimistically: 20-24 points
The Results
Since using data-driven planning:
Sprint success rate: 90% (up from 40%)
Team confidence: Way higher - no more impossible commitments
Stakeholder trust: They actually believe our timelines now
The secret: Planning within your proven capacity instead of hoping for best-case scenarios.
Why This Works
Removes guesswork - Your past performance predicts future capacity
Accounts for reality - Includes your good and bad sprints
Builds trust - Consistent delivery beats over-promising
The tool is at https://www.teamcamp.app/resources/agile-velocity-calculator
What is your team's biggest sprint planning challenge? Sometimes the simplest data makes the biggest difference.