Evumus AI
Data-driven prediction market focusing on crowd conviction
Hey Indie Hackers!
We are a small team of engineers building Evumus - a prediction market platform redesigned as a data analytics tool rather than a gambling/sportsbook app.
Why we’re building this: Most existing prediction markets lean heavily into traditional betting UX. We view prediction markets primarily as real-time truth-seeking engines and crowd conviction measures. We wanted a tool where users analyze probability distributions and market sentiment velocity without the casino vibe.
Current status:
Completely self-funded and built from scratch.
Product is live in beta.
Zero marketing budget.
What we’re looking for: We’d love to get feedback from fellow builders:
Is the data/analytics positioning clear from the landing page?
What features would make market analysis more useful for you as a user?
Check out the landing page here: https://evumus.com/
Check out the product here: https://app.evumus.com/
Excited to share our journey and hear your thoughts!
3 Comments
I'm curious what convinced you prediction markets should be framed around truth-seeking rather than forecasting or betting.
Was there a specific observation that made you believe changing the framing would fundamentally change how people use the product?
It came down to a couple of key observations:
The Behavioral Trap of "Betting": When a platform is framed as a sportsbook or betting market, it naturally attracts zero-sum, high-leverage mentalities. Users focus on short-term price swings and individual PnL rather than contributing high-signal reasoning. The UI starts feeling like a casino, which instantly alienates analysts, researchers, and domain experts who actually have the best data.
The Output Gap in "Forecasting": Pure forecasting tools (like basic pollers or prediction aggregators) are great for static estimates, but they often lack the continuous feedback loop that capital/conviction dynamics provide.
The Truth-Seeking Angle: By framing the platform around truth-seeking and crowd conviction, we shift the core utility:
The goal isn't just winning a bet, it’s extracting real-time, noise-filtered signal from collective intelligence.
We focus heavily on data analytics—tracking probability velocity, sentiment distribution, and how markets react when new information breaks (like how the remaining 5% behaves in a 95% consensus market).
Changing the framing fundamentally changes who uses the product and how they interact with it. Instead of treating it as a ticket to gamble on an outcome, users use it as a live dashboard to measure how strongly a hypothesis is backed by crowd data.
Appreciate the context.
Would be interesting to continue the conversation as you learn how users respond to that positioning.
What's the best email to reach you on?