TwoHeads

I kept making big decisions by gut feel, but this wasn’t rational or effective.

TwoHeads automates the setup. You describe the decision in plain language, Claude extracts 2–4 real branches (not just "do it" vs. "don't"), assigns probabilities with a cited real-world base rate for each ("~60% of Series A companies hit their next milestone within 18 months" — that kind of thing), and computes EV per branch. Every probability is a slider you can override, because the AI's estimate is calibrated to a base rate, not to your specific situation.

I’d love feedback on the confidence in this kind of tool. What decision framings does it consistently get wrong?

No account needed for the free tier, 1 analysis/day. Happy to answer anything about the implementation too — it's Next.js + the Claude API, decision tree is a custom canvas (no React Flow, etc.)