I analyzed 5,079 Stripe-verified startups

I analyzed 5,079 Stripe-verified indie projects. Here's the data nobody wants to show you.

I spent the last few weeks pulling full data from TrustMRR (all revenue is Stripe-verified, not self-reported) and running a systematic analysis. Here's what I found.

The market is more brutal than the success stories suggest

Median monthly revenue across all 5,079 projects: $169

Let that sink in. Half of all projects on the platform make less than $169/month. The Twitter success stories are real — but they're extreme outliers.

The actual distribution:

• Top 50%: > $169/month
• Top 25%: > ~$800/month
• Top 10%: > $10,000/month
• Top 1%: > $98,500/month

AI is the most crowded, not the most profitable

1,245 AI projects (24.5% of total). Median monthly revenue: $156.

Comparison:

• Marketplace: $1,170 median (7.5x)
• Sales tools: $711 median (4.6x)
• E-commerce: $599 median (3.8x)

The least competitive categories are quietly making the most money.

The 4-year compounding effect

This one surprised me the most:

• Year 0: $148 median/month
• Year 1: $334 median/month
• Year 2: $656 median/month
• Year 4: $2,399 median/month
• Year 5: $2,509 median/month

16x difference between year 0 and year 5. The founders who survive year 2 are playing a completely different game.

Only 48 projects are genuinely breaking out

I defined "breaking out" as: revenue > $10K/month AND growth > 50%/month.

Out of 5,079 projects, 48 qualify. That's 0.9%.

The projects hitting both bars right now: Postiz (+234%, $61K MRR), GojiberryAI (+99%, $130K revenue), Speel.co (+252%, $66K MRR).

What I'm building next

I'm turning this analysis into a weekly deal flow digest aimed at people acquiring indie projects. Every week: new listings on TrustMRR pre-scored by revenue quality, growth trajectory, and red flags.

The goal is to save acquirers 3-4 hours of manual research per week.

If you're someone who buys (or is seriously considering buying) indie projects, I'd love to get your input before I launch. What would make this actually useful for you?

Also happy to share the full scoring methodology if anyone's interested — just ask below.

Data source: TrustMRR API (Stripe-verified). Analysis date: March 2026.